Will Schryver, as you know, is a fine analyst, in fact, one of the few among all the bloggers and podcasters who you can call a real analyst, which is to say he is consistently right. He has just given a run-down on the recent US attacks on Iran.
Of course, I am biased because I predicted that the MoU was just an excuse for low intensity warfare —low intensity because the US cannot risk anything bigger.
That said, the US doubles down on stupid, however. The timing of this attack, during the funeral for Iran’s Supreme Leader and his family, murdered by the Americans and Israelis, could not be worse. It was the focus of millions and the outrage was palpable. “Death to America!” What a good idea!
But read Will…
The scent of great danger is in the wind
For the past few hours, amid a growling southwest wind (50+ mph gusts), I have been staring out my window towards nearby Iron Mountain, contemplating the physical realities of the United States attempting to blockade all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports.
The intrepid admiral prescribes two carrier strike groups, a dozen additional destroyers, and an unspecified number of “frigates” to position themselves in the Gulf of Oman.
There are three destroyers currently attached to CSG-3 (USS Abraham Lincoln), and four destroyers attached to CSG-10 (USS George H. W. Bush).
There are reportedly six independent destroyers currently operating in the Arabian Sea, and two independent destroyers in the Red Sea.
There is one littoral combat ship (”frigate”) in the Arabian Sea.
So, even if the two destroyers in the Red Sea dare to run the gauntlet of the Bab-el-Mandeb in order to join the main fleet, there would still be four more destroyers required for the order of battle Stavridis proposes for the Gulf of Oman.
But, importantly, Stavridis also says a successful blockade will require at least another half-dozen US warships on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, in the Persian Gulf proper.
He also says the naval power of the Arab Oil Sheikdoms must be committed to the operation. “So you try and bottle it up on both sides,” Stavridis explained, speaking of the Strait of Hormuz.
In total, the Stavridis order of battle for the blockade consists of:
• 2 Nimitz-class aircraft carriers
• 20+ Arleigh Burke-class destroyers
• An unspecified number of “frigates”
• An unspecified number of warships from the Arab oil kingdoms
• Presumably the USS Tripoli and its aircraft and Marines
• Presumably the USS Boxer and its aircraft and Marines
• Presumably a Brigade Combat Team from the 82nd Airborne Division
• Most of the elite American special operations forces on the planet
• American/Israeli/Arab air forces
What does Iran have to face the force Stavridis proposes?
• At least hundreds of fast attack boats carrying anti-ship missiles, torpedoes, and short-range vertical launch air defense missiles
• Hundreds of unmanned high-speed surface drones with potent warheads
• At least hundreds of anti-ship cruise missiles
• Thousands of short- and medium-range anti-ship ballistic missiles • • • Thousands of aerial attack drones of various types
• At least hundreds of surveillance drones
• Numerous stealthy mini-submarines carrying potent torpedoes
• Thousands of both Iranian and Russian MANPADs
• An unknown number of Iranian and Russian short-, medium-, and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, including the P-358 and P-359 loitering anti-aircraft missiles, which have shown impressive capabilities
• Remote-controlled mines that are anchored on the sea floor until remotely activated
• Substantial real-time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) provided by Iran’s Russian and Chinese friends
Assuming the US really does undertake to enforce its selective blockade of Iranian shipping via hard-fisted military measures — including a significant proportion of operational US naval power — it will constitute the greatest escalation of the Iran War up to this point.
But make no mistake, this is precisely the kind of battle for which Iran has prepared for the past quarter century.
This is the battle Iran WANTS to fight. How it all turns out remains to be seen.
But I remain convinced the American loss threshold is extremely low, and even if just TWO destroyers are sunk or severely damaged in coming days, it will represent an unprecedented disaster, and add an exclamation point to the decisive strategic defeat the United States has already incurred.
And, if an aircraft carrier is effectively disabled by a few drone or missile strikes, it will represent an unprecedented military and geopolitical catastrophe for the already rapidly disintegrating empire.
The scent of great danger is in the wind.
Stavridis/ Cooper / Rep Kinzinger interview.
I know, I know, what were they smoking? Ummm… “Death to America”, indeed.
America on life support? But brain dead. Time to unplug the respirator.
Iran has been biding its time, upgrading its weaponry, looking ahead. Now, the US has weakened the political “moderates” who, like all politicians want “talks” aka diplomacy. The public wants revenge. The IRGC and the Supreme Leader want final resolution, in which Iran establishes a new order not only militarily but morally.
“Death to America”?
You notice that the Americans claim to have hit 80 targets.
The Iranians responded hitting 85 in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar and the KSA came out against Iran, making themselves potential targets, too. The Gulf States have to make clear choices — especially Saudi—since the Houthis can close the Strait of Bab el Mandeb anytime they like.
The longer this confrontation goes on, the more the Americans risk losing warships. Will mentioned “smart” mines, which are not really mines in a conventional sense since they are remote controlled and can be turned off or on as you like — or detonated when you want to clear them.
This kind of technology is a spinoff from the technologies used for drones, the newest concept being underwater drones that can swarm a target.
These drones were designed for shallow waters but they have a 200kg warhead and a 600 km range, effectively however about 130 km.
US carriers are now about 800 km away but while they occasionally approach as close as 140 km to launch strikes the problem is getting close enough and launching as a swarm. These drones were designed to be launched by Iran’s three Kilo class submarines that were put out of action so it is difficult to imagine them being launched at carriers on station in the Arabian Sea—unless from a disguised cargo ship or a long distance underwater “mother” drone carrier — which is no doubt being developed but not yet available.
That said, if the US wants to carry out major operations using naval assets in Hormuz, the drones could do major damage.
The secret? Iran graduates about the same number of engineers as the US with a quarter the population, a significant number of them women.
Iran has a lot of innovative weapons designed specifically for the Strait of Hormuz.
To repeat Schryver…
“So you try and bottle it up on both sides,” Stavridis explained, speaking of the Strait of Hormuz
Bottle it up “on both sides”? That would imply warcraft just outside the strait—which means within range of Iranian missiles and also drones both airborne and sub surface.
Can Trump count on not getting impeached in November?
Humor: Marjorie Taylor Greene
Not sure how they bombed the vessel because we have totally and completely obliterated their military and beat them in the war that is not a war like 40 times now.
I’m so glad that Trump ran for president to end forever foreign wars, otherwise I might start thinking this war that is not a war that we won like 40 times is starting to turn into another forever foreign war in the Middle East.
Good thing Pete Hegseth, Secretary of the Department of Defense, I mean War, is headed to Israel to take orders from, I mean ask for advice, on how to totally wipe out Iran, I mean bring peace.
I’m totally sure no one in the executive branch or donors will do any sort of insider trading based on super duper secret military decisions.
You know the kind based on intelligence that Congress is going to fuse with Israel’s military after they all vote to pass the National Defense (war) Authorization Act.
Because this is exactly what we all voted for when we said Make America Great Again.
The US is running out of fuel for aircraft and naval vessels, not to mention munitions. And global markets hate volatility. Here comes the crash.
Are there stress tests for empires? In the meantime, Trump was off the rails again—celebrating murder, war and death. Can a President be indicted for hate speech?
According to the United Nations, hate speech is distinct from general rudeness or offensive comments. It becomes a serious threat when it actively dehumanizes targets or incites hostility, discrimination, and violence.
Death to America? What goes ‘round, comes ‘round.
