by Russell Bentley
Other reports from Bakmut mention "several hundred tanks and IFV's" in Bakmut, which is a formidable task force, but nowhere near 80,000. And, in fact, 80,000 troops is far more than would be required for a total rout of the Wagner and RF Army forces around Bakmut. The nazis have concentrated some of their most savage fighters, not in the city itself, but in the vicinity, including AZOV, the "Free Russians", AIDAR, 1st Border Detachment, and 241st Territorial Defense Brigade, all of which are genuine hardcore nazis, and among the best equipped in the ukrop army. There are also an unknown but militarily significant number of highly trained and motivated foreign "mercenaries" from NATO countries in the area. The estimates vary widely, but all agree the number is in the thousands.
Currently, and as usual, the main determining factor in whether Wagner will be able to surround, take, and hold the city (or even hold their current positions) will again be the amount of fire and material support they get (or don't get) from RF Army Command, which has so far proven itself to be rather dubious at best. If the AFU/NATO make a concentrated counter-attack on Bakmut, a failure to have sufficiently reinforced and re-supplied the Russian and Republican troops will be a virtual death sentence for the Wagner "Musicians", among the greatest Heroes of this war. There also remains a risk, and serious indications, of counter-attacks in the Zaporozhia and Ugledar areas, but I think these will probably be feigned, and not occur unless a prior breakthrough by the ukrops develops elsewhere first. And by "elsewhere", I do not mean Bakmut, I mean the major cities along the Donbas Front - Gorlovka and Donetsk/Makeevka.
One scenario the "experts" have so far failed to mention is the very real and ongoing danger that the ukrops may make another attempt to do exactly what they originally planned to do in March of 2022 - break through the Donbas Front and enter directly into the main cities of the DPR. Understand that the second biggest concentration of ukrop troops after Bakmut is between Ugledar and Avdeevka, right along the Donetsk/Makeevka city limits. It would be no cakewalk, but if the ukrops can break through our defenses on the edge of these cities, and advance 15 Km (less than 10 miles) from their present positions, they will literally be in the center of Donetsk and Makeevka, the two biggest cities in the DPR. Gorlovka, the 3rd biggest city in the DPR, also still remains on the firing line, with significant ukrop army concentrations on the edge of the city. It is less than 30 Km (20 miles) from Bakmut to the center of Gorlovka. All the units around Bakmut could instead attack Gorlovka, a move that no one seems to be talking about, but one I sure hope our guys are prepared to deal with.
If UAF/NATO counter-attacks from Bakmut or Ugledar, or towards Melitopol or Berdyansk, what are the military advantages? Very little, if any. The first two are empty cities razed to rubble, the second two are over 100 Km from the current UAF/NATO positions on the Zaporozhia Front, across open and empty enemy territory, with UAF/NATO assault groups and re-supply columns open to attack from both sides along the entire route. A frontal attack on the Bakmut or Ugledar Fronts gain the UAF/NATO nothing of military value, and only place the attacking forces deeper within the pincers that the Wagner and DPR forces have worked so hard to create, and again, in empty, open enemy country, vulnerable to attack from both sides.
There are only three border crossings between the DPR and Russia - Uspenka, Marynivka and the southern crossing at Novoazovsk. The closest to Donetsk is Uspenka, at a distance of about 100 Km, over poorly maintained, mostly 2-lane roads. The other two border crossings are further, with inferior roads in worse condition. And while the DPR is de jure now part of the Russian Federation, de facto, the border inspections and passport control still continue as before, with the resulting lines of scores, if not hundreds, of waiting vehicles at the border, (even under normal conditions) which will be the cork that will quickly block all the roads, all the way back to Donetsk, in case of an attack, or even the credible threat of one.
The instant gridlock would make Russian reinforcements from the Southern Military District in and around Rostov, Taganarog or Sambek extremely slow and difficult, if not impossible. And whatever Russian reinforcements did arrive to defend the cities, would arrive after a more than 100 Km road march across open country, undoubtedly under fire, only to arrive and have to go directly into combat against an already ensconced enemy, dispersed throughout a built-up urban area filled with friendly civilian human shields.
Now, imagine a thousand, or even a hundred, drones swarming across the Front and into a major city full of civilians. If even a few civilians or soldiers were killed by poison gas, how long do you think it would be before videos of them convulsing and choking to death in the streets got on social media and panic starts? Ukrop media says the drones will be used to sow panic, "in Crimea", but there are no major population centers within drone range in Crimea. But Donetsk/Makeevka and Gorlovka are literally on the front lines, and heavily populated. It is no secret that there are not enough gas masks for the soldiers here, much less for the civilian population in these cities. If you were a nazi terrorist with a thousand swarming drones and chemical weapons, where would you use them? In the empty rubble of Bakmut? The open fields on the way to Melitopol? Or in the major cities of Donbas?
I also understand that everything our enemies say in public is a lie. When the NATO nazis announce they are going to send depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine, it means it is already here. The more Zelensky says he does not have enough weapons and ammo to mount an offensive, the more he really means he already has. The goal of those who own and control the Kiev Regime and the NATO and Western militaries and governments is to destroy Russia as an obstacle to their ambitions for world domination, while causing as much death and destruction as possible. If I was them, and that was my goal, and I had their weapons and assets, 1,000 swarming drones, poison gas, 200,000 soldiers in reserve, and no human conscience, where do you think I would use them? Where would you?
There are thousands of combat veterans of the DPR defense forces who, for one reason or another, are not currently on active duty. I myself am one of them, due to the fact that I am 63 years old. But I have a Makarov pistol and my trophy AK, and can still defend my home and country if need be. Russia should immediately begin forming and arming civilian self-defense units, whether their existence may be considered militarily significant or not. If the nazis take the Donbas cities, they have often and openly announced their plans for "filtration" of the entire civilian population. To be "filtered" by nazis is a death sentence, simply a code word for genocide. Russia will be complicit in this nazi genocide if it fails to defend more than a million of Russian citizens, and refuses them even the means to defend themselves.
Yes, major airstrikes on bridges in central Ukraine would entail some serious risks, and the loss of some aircraft is almost a certainty. But the southern bridges near Kherson and Odessa could be approached from over the Black Sea, the central bridges near Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk approached from Russian-controlled territory east of the river, and the northern bridges near Kiev, from Russia itself (or even shorter from Belarus), all of which put planes on target with relatively short flight times in UAF/NATO controlled airspace. Risky and potentially costly, yes, but totally possible, and absolutely essential. The Russians may suffer significant losses of their air force in an air raid on the Dnieper rail bridges, but the alternative is to lose the war, and suffer a devastating and humiliating defeat.
Above all, Russia's political-military and political leadership must understand that the NATO nazi invasion of Ukraine today, is and will remain, every bit as much of a lethal threat to Russia's existence as a nation and survival as a people as the German nazi invasion of 1941 was. And it must be fought with the same dedication, wisdom and sacrifice as the Great Patriotic War, because the stakes are the same for Russia and for Russians - Victory or Death.
If Russia is prepared and under competent and serious military and political leadership, Russia can break the upcoming nazi offensive, the UAF will be finished, and NATO will withdraw, or at least have serious reservations about the advisability and ability to remain or invest further billions in a lost war. Russia can then advance to Kiev and take control of it, and all the territory east of that. This will achieve the stated goals of the SMO - the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, and the removal of all military threats to the Russian Federation and its People from Ukrainian soil. There are only two outcomes. Victory or Death.
ABOUT THE AUTHOROriginally from Texas, Russell Bentley has been living in the Donetsk People’s Republic for eight years where he now has obtained official citizenship. He left the United States in late 2014 to join the DPR army to defend the breakaway republic from the NATO-backed Kiev regime. He said the suffering of innocent people at the hands of “NATO Nazis” compelled him to volunteer. Bentley has fought on the frontlines where he has seen many of his comrades-in-arms killed. He recently attended the funeral of one of them, Sergey Lysenko, a fighter and poet who was killed in the battle for Volnavaha on May 9, Victory Day. More recently, he has been broadcasting and working in communications to convey to the world what is really happening in the Donbas and Ukraine.
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^3000US citizens have no real political representation.
We don't live in a democracy. And our freedom is disappearing fast.
I don't want to be ruled by hypocrites, whores, and war criminals.
What about you? Time to push back against the corporate oligarchy.
And its multitude of minions and lackeys.
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Ukraine nazi army will never set foot in Donetsk again. get real
Great article Russ. Thank you.
Thank you Russell!
It is difficult to figure how the tide is turning based on endless Telegram accounts of Russian, DPR, LPR, and Wagner successes against a well founded suspicion of Western media lies and deception for decades.
If the enemy has amassed such numbers so close by, it seems that neutralization must proceed apace by any means necessary. Times they are a changin. Let us hope a better world is born.
Prayers for the suffering.
Best to you and yours from a long time follower and US veteran sick of the crimes of my country.
This article by someone who is actually living in a neighborhood that has gotten shelled for 9 years tells a narrative that is quite the opposite of what anyone either on the Russian side or the West is saying. I have not heard of any of the well known commentators like Larry Johnson, Scott Ritter, Doug MacGregor considering this as a possibility. Why?
I don’t think they have the manpower or the materiel to mount such a risky offensive.
Again, Ukraine has not been able to defeat Russia in a frontal offensive.
Russia is no longer overstretched and should AFU try a massed frontal offensive, expect it to be the end of them.
Don’t panic. It is totally normal that if NATO will come with 1,000 tanks, they will advance a few kilometers. They also advanced in Kherson and Izium, and we are still alive. This war will end when USA is bankrupt. When the Not Sees conquer Donetsk, then Russia will level Kiev. If the Not Sees conquer Crimea, then Russia will flatten Washington and London. NATO has only the choice of loosing the war conventionally, or loosing the nuclear war.
I hope Russia sucker punches London and the whole USA into a coma…. before they even have a chance to come out of it alive and retaliate…
Hey Russ, I was sharing the same opinion with you about the necessity of destroying infrastructure such as major bridges, railways, border crossings… and coming from Serbia, which was bombed by NATO, I see where that is coming from. US and NATO have a lot of experience in modern conflicts and that seems like a logical direction of military action. The only thing that comes to my mind as to why the Russians are not doing that is that they are most likely planning on crossing Dnieper river once they brake Ukrop army in Donbas and they will need bridges… Read more »
Nice text. The author however, missed to include in his analysis hyper sonic Kinzhals from which so far there is no defense. Weapons against which there is no defense can bring victory and end of the war.
Well that is discomforting analysis. We are certainly getting a different picture from Col. McGreggor and Scott Ritter who say Russia is pounding Ukraine mercilessly. Russia just mobilized a lot of soldiers, better get them started up.
Rus, Greetings. We have a slight acquaintance…about a cousin of mine, “solar guy”, and so on. The essay seems reasoned and solid. I note that the prospect of seeing your sacrifice wasted together with being under nazi guns tends to bring focus. It also makes analysis of geopolitical currents more difficult. People nearby trying to kill you… Mooting the idea that VVP and his cohort may be more interested in shaping the Peace than upon the war itself. Such assumption might create the “necessity” of using the Donbass cities and people as bait. I agree that VVP lied about the… Read more »
Sorry…. VVP = ?
it must definitely be the Scoundrel I think it to be… VVP maybe a decent politician during peaceful times, but is a detrimental leader during war….
VVP is the elected Czar of the Russian Empire. Such rulers must be. And must be as tough as necessary for the health of the State and of the People.
Most of the wars going on today are American, in support of nazi brigands and sodomites.
But some people would replace VVP with O’Biden.
No doubt that would not be “detrimental”, Friend.
Let’s swap Putin for O’Biden and see to whose detriment that is.
Seriously, amigo…you would have another opinion if you knew more about it.
I know that all americans, myself included, that are on Russia’s side have been frustrated about the way they are waging this war in slow motion. I have long suspected that the Russian military wants the west to pour its weapons in so that they can destroy them. This disarms the nato countries and leaves them wide open for a future invasion if necessary. However, this tactic is going too far and now they are about to lose the war over it. At some point it must be stopped, and as Russ described- that point in time is right now.… Read more »
A lot of ‘ifs’.
I’ve new this from the beginning.. Putin underestimated the necessary Russian resources to win this war decisively. Putin should be hanged and quartered for his incompetence should Russia lose this war…. Also it seems the Russian Army is either weak or incompetent, or compromised or all of the 3, I’m betting all 3.. I sure hope for humanity’s sake I’m wrong though
Dream, on, friend. Dream on.
Why do you think 200.000 men will be capable of reaching strategic areas if aerial space is controlled by Russia?
Thanks for your insightful analysis. Is it not the case that Russian forces have moved reinforcements into spaces they control, behind the current battle lines, to harden them defensively? I have heard over and over again that, generally speaking, it’s easier to defend than to attack. If Ukrainian troops break through the front lines, is it really nothing but open space between that breakthrough and important cities in Donetsk? Surely Russia, if it has the resources, would arrange things so that such a breakthrough leads into more and more severe defensive resistance.
There are several factors not helping the kokhols to win this “spring offensive”. First : the rain, a wet spring and you can forgot about moving massive things in the country. Then there are not much covers on the south part of the front, it is literally called “tank’s plain” for a reason. Massive use of chemical warfare will trigger a nuclear reaction ; wanna play the WMD game ? Massive use of drones is more problematic on the spot, but you make it looks like a tactical single shot with no major strategic implications for the rest of the… Read more »
even the very best list of conditionals only amounts to a complex hypothetical. Russell Bentley could be occupying the Oval Office if only this, and then this, and then this….happened. this is an interesfong article, but it amounts to concern creep. tactical and strategic options are limited by resources and logistics and one must always giard agsinst concern creep because concern creep becomes paranoia, and nothing is more deadly to war planners than paranoia. Bentley writes: The more Zelensky says he does not have enough weapons and ammo to mount an offensive, the more he really means he already has…… Read more »
Please presents us with examples of Russia doing the same, as you claim. If anything, Russia (and before the USSR) were and are characterised by sober statements of policy and intent, rarely deviation from the actual facts. As for the West lying through their teeth in every imaginable manner, you could fill volumes…
Hi, I wonder why Russia not obtained a no fly zone in Ukraine in first place
As George Patton said, “If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.”
I hope those who strongly disagree with your perspective nevertheless appreciate how valuable and essential it is to have divergent viewpoints in order to avoid falling into a groupthink death trap. Thank you sir for your service.