Easier said than done.

The US still trusts in stealth technologies and standoff weapons like Tomahawks and various air-launched weapons. But Iran has shot down, not only US aircraft but various missiles, including Tomahawks, as well, and its air defense systems have been upgraded. They are more than ready.

 

And Teheran, in cooperation with the Russians and Chinese, has developed sophisticated anti stealth technologies. Below is a chart taken from the US-friendly CSIS think tank.

 

Given that the CSIS is on the conservative side and claims the Pentagon estimates that it would have to fire 4 to 6 munitions to destroy a target, the kind of war the US is talking about would do serious damage to US weapons inventories. The US has many times less the production capacity for high end weapons compared to Russia and China.

CSIS says the US might need 2800 to 4600 rounds to “do the job”. It could need a LOT more!  (And still NOT do the job!)

Of course, the US is also relying on cyberwarfare, but the Iranians have anticipated that and with the help of the Russians and Chinese are prepared for a cyber response which would impact continental American digital infrastructure. This is a 21st Century threat of massive proportions, especially with the implementation of AI technology. Ubiquity is vulnerability.

 

Finally, there is a new generation of Iranian missiles, which fly further, faster, and hit more precisely with greater impact. This is really why Iran has not invested in Nukes.

If Iran went all out against Israel, the Zionist Non-entity would cease to exist in less than a week. If the US and Israel hits Iran, Iran will survive and strike Israel hard —fast — targeting also the Gulf States, which will have to cash in their US treasuries to survive.

The US of course claims to have severely degraded, if not destroyed Iran’s supply of missiles as well as its production capacity.

But the battlefield tells a different story.

The missiles that the Iranians are now using are much more advanced than previously, indicating unimpaired production and development abilities. Recent strikes carried out by hybrid versions of the Haj Qassem, the Kheybar Shekan, the Fattah-1 maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV) signalled a huge increase in hitting power. These weapons are much more formidable in all respects – much more precise, more powerful, and harder to intercept.

The Haj Qassem is a development of the two decade old Fateh-110 family – solid-fueled, road-mobile, precision-strike ballistic missiles that have undergone continuous development, for better range, improved accuracy, and advanced propulsion and guidance.

Haj Qassem

 

The Kheybar Shekan family was developed by the IRGC, on the basis of the Raad-500, or Zohair sub-family within the Fateh missile ecosystem, with a separate engineering team and procurement chain.

Both the Haj Qassem and Kheybar Shekan-1 carry warheads of about 500 kilograms with radii of action in the 1,400–1,450-kilometer range. Having two missile systems of similar characteristics might seem like redundancy but it offers considerable advantages in a hot war of this kind. It reduces the effects on overall capability in the case of the degradation of one production line – whether through attrition, sanctions, supply-chain disruption, or targeted strikes. Having two different development teams promotes creativity and adaptability as well

The existence of two missiles serving broadly comparable strategic roles, while originating from different organizational and industrial structures, creates strategic redundancy within the missile-industrial base and complicates the enemy’s attempts to reduce overall capability by targeting any single institutional or production network.

But why create hybrids?

The Haj Qassem’s large booster provides greater propulsive energy, a larger fuel volume, and potentially higher thrust, which translates into higher velocity or the capacity to carry a heavier payload with explosive power, amplified by kinetic, thermal conversion energy .

The Kheybar Shekan’s, advanced flight control system and terminal-phase guidance incorporates lessons learned from the Raad-500 resulting in a warhead that is more maneuverable, more accurate, and harder to intercept even by the most advanced interception systems available to the West.

You get a more capable missile saving the time and trouble it would take to develop and produce a new missile from scratch.

Similarly, combining a Fattah-class MaRV and a Haj Qassem booster optimizes the delivery of the MaRV, whose unpredictable terminal trajectory, makes it extraordinarily difficult for layered defense systems to intercept.

PAC-3 and David’s Sling are designed for lower-altitude intercepts against missiles; THAAD engages ballistic targets in the upper atmosphere and exo-atmosphere also during the terminal phase; SM-3 is primarily an exo-atmospheric interceptor designed for mid-course engagement; and Arrow-3 operates in a similar exo-atmospheric envelope— but all these systems are dependent on calculable intercept geometry.

Finite reaction time and limited maneuver capability makes it difficult for any interceptor system to solve a continuously changing targeting problem.

Iran’s accomplishments would not be possible without a functioning, well-resourced engineering and production infrastructure, which it has developed by itself to overcome sanctions and economic warfare.

This kind of cross-family integration implies operating linked, self-supporting design bureaus, computational facilities, manufacturing lines, and testing apparatus capable of validating the integrated system.

Keep in mind that Iranian missile production system manufactures both the booster and warhead sections of its missiles as matched sets.

Following what would be normal production logic in the West, there would be no reason to take the warhead from an existing Kheybar Shekan missile and mate it to a Haj Qassem booster since doing so would simply destroy one complete missile to create one hybrid missile, with no net gain in inventory.

Oh, “net gain”? —and it wouldn’t be as profitable as designing, designing and retooling for a totally new rocket!

However, with this hybrid configuration Iran is producing new Kheybar Shekan warhead assemblies and new Fattah-class MaRVs specifically for integration onto Haj Qassem boosters.

This means Iran’s production lines for its most advanced warhead technologies, including the Fattah MaRV, are fully active and up to producing beyond what is needed to sustain existing missile types in their standard configurations.

 

Years of sanctions, sabotage, assassinations of top scientists and leaders, and military strikes [by US/Israe;]  have challenged but not diminished Iranian missile design and production but rather stimulated adaptation, acceleration, and innovation.

It’ s more bang for the buck. The Rial Deal… (Sorry, couldn’t resist that….)

The US has assumed that it has destroyed Iranian missile industry to the extent that it can not develop advanced missiles like we are seeing today . It still assumes that,  despite the destruction of US bases in West Asia and constant demonstrations of the lethality of Iranian system.

The hybrid Haj Qassem–Kheybar Shekan/Fattah configurations are innovative and modular missiles that are not only militarily powerful but economically efficient and provide the basis for future advances. They are also testimony to Iran’s resilient industrial base and the quality of its engineers and scientists.

While the number of KIA are lower than they would be in battlefield combat, the effects of a missile blast are still devastating, with a very large number of people suffering from brain trauma

The newest hybrid is a version of the Fatah 2.

 

Yes, Iran’s own Oreshnik.

A US and Israeli attack is something Iran might be hoping for.

Something different. Why the Japanese are disappearing

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