Julian Macfarlane
NEWS FORENSICS
War for Dummies
American dummies, that is
Iranian ISR
The Cradle@TheCradleMedia
According to the source, the strikes inflicted significant damage on high-value US military equipment.
The source said Iranian forces closely tracked two US Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft from the moment they took off. One aircraft reportedly departed from Diego Garcia Air Base in the central Indian Ocean, while the other flew from a US military base in Western Europe toward the southern Persian Gulf. Based on intelligence gathered during the operation, Iran allegedly targeted the aircraft’s locations at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain and Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait using precision-guided weapons.
A separate source stated that Iranian intelligence and field surveillance assets also monitored the deployment of at least three US F-35 fighter jets inside a hangar at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan up until the final moments before the missile launches. According to the source, Iran subsequently struck the exact location of the hangar with long-range solid-fuel missiles.
It looks like Iran did destroy F16s or F35s in Jordan, not just hangars. As you can see, these were very precise hits. Jordan and the US claim to have shot everything down, but Patriot missiles could not take down a Kheiber MARV warhead, without a huge amount of luck.
The fact that Iran was able to track and hit Navy P8s is also significant: it indicates the Iran’s Chinese supplied ISR was very effective this time, as it was in the past. The P8 is a sophisticated and expensive ($500 million) bit of kit.
Naturally, CENTCOM is not admitting to anything.
But Trump is pissed.
Need I remind you there is a slight difference between Iran and Venezuela in defense capabilities. While the US did take control of Venezuela’s petrochemical marketing it did so at the cost of rebuilding its infrastructure, while leaving the Chavistas in control of everything in the country. The US cannot make up its losses for at least 10 years, at which point the Chavistas will likely take back control.
As for taking control of Kharg Island, it is true that the Island did provide terminal facilities for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, but taking control of Hormuz and the subsequent American blockade have already reduced tanker traffic, so other than pushing oil prices higher, it will make no difference . That is, the terminal is getting only marginal use anyway.
My guess is that the Iranians hope the Americans try to take the island and gift them a lot of Marine hostages!
🩸 Blood Will Be Shed
Will Schryver’s Opinion
William Schryver
And given how obsessed Trump is with market movements, it seems likely they will time this ground assault to coincide with the upcoming 3-day holiday
🩸 an amphibious / airborne insertion in the vicinity of Chabahar on Iran’s far southern coast
🩸 an assault launched from Kurdistan in the far north
🩸 an assault launched from Kuwait, possibly with the aim of seizing Kharg Island
All three options are, in my estimation, nucking futs; absolutely doomed to failure; very possibly the most catastrophic American military operation since Burnside’s disaster at Fredericksburg in 1862 and Grant’s blood bath at Cold Harbor in 1864.
William Schryver is almost never wrong.
Unexpected Responses
Let us also remember that Iran has been preparing for some kind of confrontation like this.
What we see here is the US — or rather Trump — just reacting. Iran, on the other hand, is applying its version of the “operational art” strategically, managing the “escalation ladder” in such a way, that no matter what the US does it injures itself economically and reputationally.
A Perfect Storm
BRICS then wins —Russia, China, and Iran win too.
Cats CAN be protective!
