Ukraine

This is the third article on Black Mountain Analysis addressing the Oreshnik phenomenon. It will discuss some theoretical possibilities in language that is understandable for non-engineers or non-scientists and try to simplify the technical aspects of a new weapon that appears to be a true game changer.

---

The previous two articles discussing the first use of Oreshnik and the potential attack on Zelensky’s bunker are linked here:

"Oreshnik" Enters The Chat [i]

MIKE MIHAJLOVIC

·

NOVEMBER 23, 2024

A recent Russian missile attack followed shortly after Ukraine got approval to use US and NATO-made weapons on Russian territory. Not even a day after Biden approved the use of ATACMS, six were launc…

Read full story

Oreshnik Against Zelensky's Bunker [i]

MIKE MIHAJLOVIC

·

DECEMBER 18, 2024

This article is about the damaging effects of ammunition with a particular analysis of what the Oreshnik warhead can do to a target. The whole subject of hypersonic impact on the ground is highly tec…

Read full story

Attacks on underground objects with a conventional bombs can be accessed here:

Attacking the Underground Objects [i]

MIKE MIHAJLOVIC

·

OCTOBER 5, 2023

In recent days (especially end of September and beginning of October 2023) it became obvious that Russia is using more and more heavy bombs (designated as FAB-500 and FAB-1500) equipped with guidance…

Go to top

Read full story

Let’s start with the arrival of the first responders to the site. According to available information, they found something very unusual about the bombing site. Besides the ruins, rubble, and debris everywhere, what leaked from the internal communications was that they observed something described as “small volcanoes filled with glowing material.”  Assuming that the first responders have seen many bombing sites and participated in fire extinguishing and search and rescue operations, this description was unique and intriguing. Ukrainian SBU immediately cordoned off the whole area, and access was allowed only to those approved by the authorities. The reason was simple: attempt to deny any potential Russian observation by satellites or drones. What is interesting is that commercial satellites somehow obscure those particular areas. This prevents the OSINT approach, but the Russian military likely took site photos, satellite, and drone records. Also, the first responders in a predominantly Russian-speaking city and the Russian population are highly likely to pass HUMINT to the Russian side.

At the time of writing, there are no official records of foreigners visiting the site immediately after the attack. Still, it is highly likely that SBU and police investigation teams already shared information and collected material with their Western counterparts.

“Mini Volcano”

If the missile bus carries just six large warheads without submunitions, they may be dispersed some distance from each other so that the penetration into the ground might be deeper, but the overall width of the targeted area may be smaller compared to an equivalent dispersion of smaller submunitions.

As described in the article about the hypothetical attack on Zelensky’s bunker, six larger warheads may be able to penetrate closer to the underground structure, but based on the cumulative effect and the dispersion, they may not be able to cover a wider area. The same logic holds for the simultaneous attack of multiple smaller nuclear warheads on the wider but still patterned (circular or elliptical) area than with one larger warhead because combining multiple smaller warheads will yield wider destruction.

For the sake of explanation, that glowing material may be some kind of molten natural material in the form of magma (underground molten rock) or lava (molten rock above ground). It would be correct to say that they likely saw something that reminded them of lava. Anything on the surface can catch fire, but for firefighters, this is something that they don’t see every day.

As there are no public photos available, the following images illustrate how that molten material on the surface may have looked when the first responders arrived:

Just for reference: lava material that may closely resemble what the first responders encountered after arriving at the Yuzhmash plant.

Considering that Dnipro is not even close to any seismic or volcanic zone, it is unknown what ammunition can create this effect.

It is definitely not nuclear but rather kinetic, and many experts agree — kinetic warheads made of a dense and very high-temperature resistant material. The next question is whether the projectile is purely inert (kinetic) or if some active component has been incorporated. Based on available information in the scientific domain, there are some merits to the argument that there may also be a unique explosive present, adding to the kinetic effect.

High density is necessary for deep penetration, and depleted uranium is among the most dense materials. However, its use would leave residual radiation, so this idea is excluded from consideration.

From the previous article about Oreshnik:

“The Russian source said that the surface temperature of the warhead is 4000 C, and to withstand this temperature, a special alloy or ceramic material was developed. The composition is top secret. It is known that Tantalum-Hafnium carbide or Hafnium carbonitride has a melting point of about 4000 C, but these materials are used just representative of the possibilities. Other components may be present if the warhead does not melt at 4000 C. Density is another unknown and can be easily higher than 16 g/cc. Depleted uranium would be the densest material available but it was definitely not used in Oreshnik. It may also be some alloy based on Wolfram (Tungsten) Vanadium base.”

Concerning high-density metals and explosives, the term Energetic Structural Material (EMS) comes to mind.

“Energetic structural materials (ESMs) are multifunctional reactive composites which are designed to have structural strength and energetic characteristics, including high energy density and low sensitivity. The application of ESMs is expected in military as kinetic penetrators, reactive fragments, reactive bullets, reactive armor and munition casings, which require mechanical properties comparable to regular metallic materials. The rate of heat release is another important consideration for designing ESMs. It requires heterogeneous reactions with fast kinetics, in time scales defined by the specific applications, ranging from minutes down to microseconds. It was found that the rate of heat release relies on the size of particles or bilayer spacing of reacting components. For the particle in nanoscale, the timescale of reaction is on the order of tens of microseconds”1.

Researching further, ESMs consist of alloys and composites using Aluminum, Zirconium, Nickel, etc. Aluminum-based ESMs have good energy release characteristics, but the most significant disadvantage is their very low density and strength, rendering them useless as hard penetrators. Even with hypersonic velocity, they would not penetrate more than a few meters before disintegrating. To achieve high penetration ability, a dense metal such as tungsten or tungsten alloy is necessary.

Adding tungsten creates energetic structural materials with high strength. This material has high stability under normal conditions and the ability to maintain structural integrity under detonation loading. What is of particular interest is that when the ESMs interact with a target object, which in Dnipro was an underground structure, chemical reactions occur between different components of the ESMs and surrounding materials, resulting in combustion or explosion reactions.

Research on shock-induced reactions in metal-based reactive materials, such as a powder mixture, appeared for the first time in the Russian literature in 1956, followed by numerous works. This has resulted in advances in solid-state chemistry under high-pressure shock loading down to microscopic scales involving defect mechanisms. A new branch of reactive materials, Structural Reactive Materials (SRM), emerged in the early 2000s. A structural reactive material comprises a mixture of micrometric or nanometric energetic metals and metal compounds condensed to maximum density. SRMs have a broad application potential, including armament systems, reactive armors, reactive protection, and energy sources for outer space uses through intermetallic reactions, for air blast through oxidation of fine SRM fragments, and for extreme environment applications where the conventional high explosives fail due to lack of high temperature or high-pressure sustenance.2

Dense metal explosives and energetics incorporate a large metallic mass fraction to maximize the dynamic effect of dense metal flow with high particle momentum flux, release high-energy reactive particles coherently to enhance the blast wave, or both.3

Dispersal from a dense metal explosive provides two main dynamic effects in a nearby structure locally: total impulse dominated by high-speed metal momentum flux and particle clustering and jetting, which deviates from the mean metal flow density and motion. Both effects will be further influenced when the particles are reactive. When reactive metal particles are involved, two multipeak energy release rules for hybrid detonation will help design new classes of dense metal explosives and energetic systems.4

To simplify a complex phenomenon, the projectile approaching with high velocity (10+ Mach) and high surface temperature creates a shockwave and interacts with the surrounding material such as dirt, soil moisture, rocks, or concrete. A chemical process forms that creates detonation. So, besides the kinetic impact, a warhead of a specific composition will also induce an explosion, multiplying the effect of the kinetic penetration. High temperature combined with a shock wave accelerates systems that contain a large quantity of micrometric or nanometric metals and metal compound particles, so detonation creates an immense temperature that can melt surrounding material to some distance.

Physically, the Oreshnik warhead (assuming it is 100+ kg) may penetrate ~40 m (depending on the soil composition). A hypersonic shockwave is trapped underground, creating immense heat and pressure that vaporizes surrounding material such as rock, dirt, and concrete. This penetration occurs so quickly that the projectile material is still compact to some level, after which a rapid (nanosecond) exothermic reaction starts, causing the immediate burning of the projectile particles and surrounding material. Tungsten and alloy components of the warhead under this temperature begin to burn. This burning creates a chemical or secondary energy release from the projectile. This happens in micro- or nanoseconds. The penetration depth ensures that most of the energy is released underground, meaning that there will be a minimal explosion effect visible on the surface. It will not be a fireball like during the explosion of conventional warheads. Plasma or electrically charged gas plume may be visible around the impact point. It may happen because of the very high temperature.

The impact at Yuzhmash may be described as extreme pressure generated underground, creating a microearthquake that damaged foundations, buildings, and underground structures. Any seismic station in the region would have been able to detect it. The combined action of longitudinal and transverse vibrations of soil particles would cause a surface seismic wave (Rayleigh wave) to be propagated along the free surface of the ground from the explosion epicenter. 

After the underground overpressure subsides and the shockwave reaches the surface, everything above the impact points may collapse into the cavity below, which is filled with molten material. This collapse of the solid materials pushes the molten material up. This material will eventually solidify.

This explains what may have happened beneath Yuzhmash and what the first responders saw as a “mini volcano.”

 

Conclusion

Russia has the upper hand and is years ahead of anything similar in the West. Oreshnik missiles can reach any NATO location, and there are 40 high-priority bases whose neutralization will cripple NATO in Europe for good. Russia will soon have hundreds of Oreshnik missiles ready, and NATO has nothing (even on the drawing boards) to intercept them.

References & Bibliography

1. Tungsten combustion in impact-initiated WeAl composite based on W(Al) super-saturated solid solution, Kong-xun Zhao, Xiao-hong Zhang, Xiao-ran Gu, Yu Tang, Shun Li, Yi-cong Ye, Li'an Zhu, Shu-xin Bai

2. The Julius Meszaros Lecture: Dense Metal Explosives and Energetics: Fundamentals and Beyond. 25th International Symposium on Military Aspects of Blast and Shock (MABS25)

3. Effect of W on the Impact-Induced Energy Release Behavior of Al–Ni Energetic Structural Materials, Shun Li, Caimin Huang, Jin Chen, Yu Tang, and Shuxin Bai

4. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925838820312573

5. https://t.me/Slavyangrad/116233

6. https://x.com/cheguwera/status/1873334757171339269

7. https://t.me/Slavyangrad/115916

8. Are the Oreshnik Missile's 'Hazelnuts' Akin to the 'Rods of God'? Douglas C. Youvan

Thanks for reading Black Mountain Analysis! This post is public so feel free to share it.

---

MIKE MIHAJLOVIC is a geopolitical analyst based in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada · Senior Engineer, Writer · Military analyst.