REMINISCENCE OF THE FUTURE
Wednesday, July 6, 2022
Larry Makes A Good Analogy.
When he recalls a universally beloved cartoon:
Not since Wile E Coyote’s repeated failures to nab the Road Runner have we seen debacles like the ones now unfolding in the UK and Europe as a consequence of their misguided effort to destroy Russia. Germany’s economy is on the precipice. With an economy dependent of the import of oil and gas from Russia, German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz thought it a dandy idea to cut itself off from its main supplier. What could go wrong with that?
Well, we have BoJo who desperately tries to compare himself to Sir Winston. Churchill was a classic British SOB, but he had enough honor to take responsibility for the Gallipoli failure. Churchill was also a great demagogue with a gift for dry wit. BoJo, who is a product of a pedophile and degenerate culture of British "elites" and who would shit his pants by just being next to an artillery piece, is not Sir Winston, no matter how much he tries. But today he fights for his "survival" with his "cabinet" resigning in industrial quantities. Somebody called BoJo smart, it is akin to... well, you know what? It never was my favorite Queen's piece, but John Deacon created some of the greatest Queens global hits. Or as Vladimir Putin says:
Another one bites the dust.
I Will Be Very Brief. (Patriot batteries are for suckers)
The Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia reports that the West will never supply Ukraine with US Patriot AD complexes "to not provoke Russia". For lay observers this rationale seems sound, but, of course, in matters of politics in the West which is primarily smoke and mirrors and virtual reality, the main reason is completely different. It is here (in Russian) where Russian MoD demonstrates annihilation of the two launchers of the US-supplied HIMARS and also a radar unit of one of the Ukie S-300.
The Patriot has a troubled history, but apart from its "effectiveness" being questioned from the times of the First Gulf War, one inevitably is forced to recall a global FUBAR in Saudi Arabia in 2019. The failure against "homemade" drones and missiles was so spectacular that one inevitably has to ask the question of how those Patriots will fare against a salvo of 3M14 Kalibr, let alone supersonic P-800 Onyx which also maneuvers if need be. You know the answer. Western weapon systems (together with its "operational art") have already sustained massive reputational losses--enough to recall barely 20% "effectiveness" of much-touted wunderwaffe such as Switchblade or Javelins--so, nobody in the West needs a full demonstration by means of physical annihilation of Patriot PAC 3s, likely with NATO's personnel in them, by all kinds of Russian high precision stand-off weapons. And that IS the main reason why Patriots, at least for now, will not appear in Ukraine. Simple as that. So, no muddying waters and spin can hide now a systemic issue in not just tactical and operational, but doctrinal views of the combined West on modern warfare.
Tuesday, July 5, 2022
A-ha! Interesting News.
As someone on our discussion boards noticed, beautifully: Russia and China do not stand shoulder to shoulder, but back to back. Very succinct. That is why I am always standoffish in regards to Russian-Chinese cooperation in some (by far not all) spheres. While China and Russia are de facto military allies, economically--they are competitors. And here is what Yuri Borisov confirmed a week ago:
АЛЕКСИН /Тульская область/, 29 июня. /ТАСС/. Россия сокращает свое участие в проекте создания совместного с Китаем дальнемагистрального широкофюзеляжного самолета CR929, сообщил вице-премьер Юрий Борисов в рамках пленарной сессии форума "Инженеры будущего". "У нас идет с Китаем этот проект, идет в принципе не в том русле, которое нас устраивает. Китай по мере превращения в индустриального гиганта все меньше и меньше заинтересован в наших услугах, у нас работает наше КБ, мы имеем громадный опыт в ЦАГИ (Центральный аэрогидродинамический институт - прим. ТАСС). <...> Но у китайцев больше потребностей, чем у нас на сегодняшний день. Наше участие все уменьшается и уменьшается. Я не хочу прогнозировать будущее этого проекта - будем мы из него выходить или не будем, но пока он по факту идет", - сказал Борисов.
ALEKSIN / Tula region /, June 29. /TASS/. Russia is reducing its participation in the project to create a long-range wide-body aircraft CR929 jointly with China, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said at the plenary session of the Future Engineers forum. “We are working with China on this project, which, in principle, is not going in the direction that suits us. China, as it becomes an industrial giant, is less and less interested in our services, we have our design bureau, we have vast experience in TsAGI ( Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute - TASS note).<...> But the Chinese have more needs than we have today. Our participation is decreasing and decreasing. I don't want to predict the future of this project - will we leave it or not , but for now it is actually on its way," Borisov said.
So, what could this "direction" be that "doesn't suit" Russia? Let me speculate a bit, or, hell with it, go on a limb here and I wrote about it for a long time. I think the issue here is the engine, namely PD-35 which is in the works and was supposed to be installed on the CR-929. China depends on foreign engines when it comes to commercial aviation and this tradition will not change [soon] because, as with nuclear submarines, Chinese technology in this respect lags, and lags significantly behind the West and Russia. Stating concerns with sanctions China, and here I begin to speculate, most likely wanted technologies for PD-35 "appropriated" as in the "indigenous" Chinese engine. This is not the "gift" Russia is willing to give to China. And rightly so. Modern jet engine technologies are one of the most advanced and sensitive technologies anywhere.
It is inconceivable for Pratt and Whitney or Rolls Royce, or GE to simply "share" with China, even at the peak of West-Chinese cooperation in 2000s and 2010s their engine technologies. As I already stated on several occasions--China lags here. Why she lags--it is a whole other issue altogether. Creating competitive commercial aircraft with her own indigenous engine is a hell of undertaking and if China, including through cooperation with Ukraine at some point, wants to take this road alone, sure. But it has to be clearly stated that at this very moment China doesn't have a competitive engine for both the Comac 919 (which was planned to be "motorized" by LEAP-1) and, especially, the CR 929.
Here is the thing which has to be considered:
There is a solution for China and Comac; the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (ACAE) has been developing their own engine, expressly designed for the C919 aircraft. The ACAE CJ-1000A has performance similar to the CFM LEAP-1C and PW1000G, but to China it is a native engine, built domestically. The CJ-1000A was unveiled in 2012, and has been in testing ever since. However, this engine might not be ready for service until 2030.
Pay attention to the date. So, by any measure, the Chinese expect at least 18 years of developing such an engine. As of today [there is] no serial produced competitive indigenous engine available for Chinese commercial aviation. Consider a development cycle for PD-14 whose first run was in 2014 (the concept of engine was presented in 2009) and is now in serial production since 2021. Draw your own conclusions. China's achievements in economy, some technologies, science etc. are very impressive and demand admiration and appreciation. But there are a few specific and crucial fields in which China still lags greatly behind the West and Russia. Commercial aviation is one such field. There is a hefty number of other industries. But Borisov's statement is a good indication of Russia's full intent to remain one of the leading nations in design and engineering of a very high-end technology and Russia is not going to make "presents" in this respect to anyone. Especially, recalling how China (and not only China) was transporting planeloads of technical documentation from Russia and Ukraine on the latest Soviet commercial and military technologies. In the end, Russia has a ready and wonderful platform for IL-96 to be re-motorized with the PD-35 and no one is a better marketing "director" for this than Vladimir Putin himself.
This is a primer for today.
Larry And Alex With Alexander Go At It Today.
The Duran guys and Larry got together today and discussed all those important issues of narrative. I had a chance to only browse it for 5 minutes, but all three are the people you want to have your analytical input from.
Monday, July 4, 2022
The Numbers Begin To Roll In.
I know, it is the 4th but still, life doesn't stop. So, Shoigu gave the count (preliminary):
"Успешно проведена наступательная операция по освобождению территории ЛНР. В течение двух недель окружены и ликвидированы группировки в Горском котле в районах Лисичанска и Северодонецка. <…> Операция завершена вчера освобождением одного из крупнейших городов ЛНР, Лисичанска. Всего в ходе активных наступательных действий взято под контроль 670 квадратных километров территории. Общие потери ВСУ составили 5 469 человек, в том числе безвозвратные 2 218", - сказал он.По словам Шойгу, также ВСУ потеряли 196 танковых и бронированных машин, 12 самолетов, один вертолет, 65 беспилотников, шесть зенитных ракетных комплексов большой дальности, 97 ракетных систем залпового огня, 166 орудий полевой и минометной артиллерии, 216 автомобилей. "В Лисичанске противник бросил 39 танков и других бронированных машин, 11 орудий и минометов".
Translation: "An offensive operation was successfully carried out to liberate the territory of the LPR. Within two weeks, groups in the Gorsky cauldron in the areas of Lisichansk and Severodonetsk were surrounded and liquidated. <...> The operation was completed yesterday by the liberation of one of the largest cities of the LPR, Lisichansk. control of 670 square kilometers of territory. The total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 5,469 people, including irretrievable 2,218," he said. According to Shoigu, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also lost 196 tanks and armored vehicles, 12 aircraft, one helicopter, 65 drones, six long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, 97 multiple launch rocket systems, 166 field and mortar artillery guns, 216 vehicles. "In Lisichansk, the enemy threw 39 tanks and other armored vehicles, 11 guns and mortars".
The reason I say "preliminary" is because it will take some time before additional KIAs of VSU will be removed from the rubble, forest areas etc. This removal, usually, lasts a couple of weeks and numbers will only grow in terms of KIAs.
Of course, students of NATO warfare, which is primarily PR, such as Ze' "adviser" Arestovich already stated (in Russian) that the loss of Severodonetsk and Lysichansk was "a successful operation of VSU". What can I say, it is a well known fact that Nazi Germany also defeated the Soviet Union. So, it is all good. These people are darlings of the Western "elites" because they are very much alike.
In related news, Combat Approved finally (finally!) went back decades ago and told the story of Victors-III, project 671RTMK SSGNs, capable to carry a strategic cruise missile Granat (they still do).
From this book:
Larry debunks yet another BS from WaPo regarding losses:
Denial ain’t a river in Egypt (i.e. The Nile, lame humor), but it is flowing at flood stage in Ukraine. Apparently the Washington Post reporter writing this fairy tale (published today, Saturday) did not get the news that the Russians now occupy Lysychansk and the Ukrainian troops are fleeing the area as fast as they can (hoping not to meet Russian artillery rounds). I want to focus specifically on the bogus claim that Russia is suffering just as many casualties as Ukraine. Here is a recent video of a Ukrainian unit–the 43rd Infantry Battalion–laying down their arms and being accused of desertion... I challenge any western military toady to show a comparable video of Russian troops giving up. Good luck. It does not exist. Instead, you will find those rowdy Chechens celebrating liberating Lysychansk (with an Allah u Akbar tossed in for good measure).
We all know that no Western media outlet will accept this challenge. As I stressed in my last video--to work in Western establishment media one has to a) either make a deal with own consciousness b) be a complete psychopath ready to lie non-stop. I admit the existence of the third type--a completely sublime idiots who believe in this "freedom of speech" BS, but for the most one has to be a damaged human being to accept job at WaPo, NYT or BBC.
Our very own Larch also makes some excellent points today precisely on this issue:
If a hundred thousand are 200s and three hundred thousand are 300s wounded, surrendered or captured, it doesn't matter much. There are hundreds of thousands of bodies available to force into service. Training for Ukies is 2-4 weeks, all important weapons systems seem to be manned by mercs, NATO advisers and PMC contractors. The Ukie tactics now are: stay in prepared defenses until they are breeched and overrun, retreat to civilian infrastructure, use human shields, fight until you have no ammo, run to the next location, second or third echelon. You'll get more ammo, some food and water, repeat until you are dead. Of course there are catastrophic losses. The US designed defenses haven't worked in a war since before WWI. They require a suicidal human frontal assault from the Russians to produce winning results. The Russians' frontal assault comes in the mode of artillery and missile strikes. They have recently added a helicopter and armed drone-based rocket, Project 305, LMAR. Helos can stand off 10-20 kilometers and blowup any target. Russians have been using these in night raids. So, the Ukies get hit 24/7. No trench, house, or armored vehicle is safe. The technology of the rocket makes it devastatingly deadly.
We all know by now that BS about "Russia sustaining huge losses" was prepared well before SMO and this narrative was "shaped" including by the US military "experts" such as Petraeus and Keane, plus other neocon losers who lost every single war in their lives but for some reason pass for "experts" on Russia which no one of them is. You get what you paid for. Real professionals knew that the thing was over once VSU was pinned down in defensive positions and was largely denied any kind of operational mobility. The "reinforcements" were gladly welcomed into what is called in Russian Fire Sack (Огневой Мешок) which is a perfect arrangement for killing the enemy which has a severely limited mobility.
While great Western military "minds" were trying to come up with yet another fairy tale of how Russia loses to VSU, which, for all intents and purposes, doesn't exist as a competent army anymore, even Yahoo News dimwits started to notice that:
On May 28 in Arctic waters not far from Finland and Norway, Russia’s Northern Fleet blasted a missile from a frigate in the Barents Sea that was no ordinary projectile. According to Tass, the Russian news agency, the test of the Tsirkon hypersonic missile, believed to be capable of traveling nine times the speed of sound, was a success, hitting a target 625 miles away in the White Sea. The May 28 test of the hypersonic missiles, which were designed to evade air defense systems, was the 14th conducted by Russia in the previous five months and hypersonic weapons are increasingly seen as a possible threat to the U.S. and NATO. “You have failed to contain Russia,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said when he first announced his plans for the hypersonic arsenal in 2018.
The piece has a pretentious title: Will the race to develop hypersonic weapons spark the next global arms race? You know what, I don't have to contain myself within the framework of basic politeness and decorum, so here it is. Most those "journos" are retards capable of re-narrating, on the level of high school or student newspaper, things which are beyond their comprehension and this title is a full proof of that. The hypersonic "arms race" has been "sparked" in 1960s with USSR developing a line of supersonic anti-shipping missiles, which went from M=1.3 in such systems as early ASMs P-6/35 to M=2.5 in P-700 and P-800 Onix and then with a very high supersonic ASMs air-launched X-31 and M=4.2+ X-32. I am on record, this "arms race" is a complex thing because while the US already lost it, it is also nowhere near the second, crucial, component of it--Anti-hypersonic weapons. US Air Defense is not even in the same league as S-400, let alone S-500, S-300V4 and S-550, let alone A-235 Nudol.
But, of course, there would be no good reason to pen this BS article if British and French "experts", such as this boy from Chatham House--a proud bearer of a tradition of intellectual, academic and human degeneracy of British and French "elites"--wouldn't try to commence the therapeutic session. The name of the boy is Mathieu Boulègue.
But while many are worried about Russia’s hypersonic weapons, Mathieu Boulègue, senior research fellow for the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, isn’t one of them. “Russia doesn’t really have working hypersonic systems,” he told Yahoo News. “I’ll be worried when Russia has a standing force of heavily deployed hypersonic systems that can actually create strategic effects in a standoff against the West. But right now, it’s just tests” of what he calls “asymmetric enablers.” Ten or 20 years down the road, “hypersonics could be a game-changer. But it’s still very early.”
The boy, obviously, lacks basic facts on the physics of hypersonics and has zero understanding of technological issues pertaining hypersonic development, but then again, he is an Exhibit A of why combined West is in a deep shit and cannot win a war against people with AK-47s and RPGs. Why the West needs enemies when it has such "experts". I have a news for him--political science IS NOT a valid academic field. Especially in terms of defense technologies which require serious STEM degrees and good understanding of the tactical, operational and strategic issues related to modern warfare--a body of knowledge which, now it can be stated with confidence, Western "elite" doesn't have. Not to mention the fact that the boy wouldn't last a year in serious military academy or STEM institution in Russia. Too hard. Here is another real professional talking about UK which is "irrelevant" as a military force, as is France, in modern world.
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^3000US citizens have no real political representation.
We don't live in a democracy. And our freedom is disappearing fast.
I don't want to be ruled by hypocrites, whores, and war criminals.
What about you? Time to push back against the corporate oligarchy.
And its multitude of minions and lackeys.
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