By Amarynth for the Saker Blog
Russian artillery.
With select commentary.
Recall: We have no idea what the Russian end-point is, except for this part of the SMO, demilitarization and denazification of the two Donbass Republics.
The blogger gpovanman summarizes the last week as follows:
The last few days have seen no real breakthroughs in the Ukrainian conflict, yet with Russia not planning that there would be, this comes as no surprise. There are however enough other matters to give us an idea of what the future may bring. https://gpovanman.wordpress.com/2022/06/13/a-week-in-view/
In the broader environment, just about everyone in the EU and in the US, and in NATO is trying to walk backward with another change of narrative. So, (1), old Kissinger was dusted off again, and he pontificates: “The question will now be how to end that war. At its end a place has to be found for Ukraine and a place has to be found for Russia – if we don’t want Russia to become an outpost of China in Europe.”
(Did I say that China is heating up? And that the warmongers are now taking a new look at China?. It is inconceivable for this western axis of evil and empire of lies, that we can live without a big war because that will lead to faster western implosion. Take a look at the address by General Wei Fenghe, State Councilor; Minister of National Defense, China. He does not mince words and says clearly that China will fight http://thesaker.is/iiss-shangri-la-dialogue-2022-chinas-vision-for-regional-order/).
(2) Some talking head with the memorable name of Sikorsky, a member of the EU and a previous Polish Defense Minister, is trying to talk up the possibility that the west could supply the Ukraine with nuclear weapons to defeat Russia. But the talk of a glorious victory of the Ukraine is diminishing.
(3) Stoltenberg from NATO supplies us with this comment, but it is all up to the Ukraine he says. (Remember the notes from previous sitreps that the Ukraine is now fast becoming an orphan. To add to that, everyone is sick and tired of Zelenski.)
“Peace is possible,” says Stoltenberg. “The only question is what price are you willing to pay for peace? How much territory, how much independence, how much sovereignty…are you willing to sacrifice for peace?”
The news for these august gentlemen is simple. You have sugar spun cotton candy in your heads. You cannot appease Russia with some territory that they already have, or will take. Its not yours to give. Russia will decide exactly what happens to the Ukraine, how, and when. The Great WalkBack will make no difference to Russia’s decisions here as the core issue is a restructuring of the complete European security structural apparatus, in such a way that Russia is not threatened. The next steps from Russia will give us more insight into how they will accomplish this.
Also take a look at Andrei Martyanov who went on quite a rant detailing yet again exactly the Russian military strength: http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/06/what-worries-me-really.html
The Russian Foreign office released this card for Russia day yesterday.
It says “we asked them nicely not to expand eastward” next to headware of the Teutonic Knights, Poles, Napoleon and the Germans. And an empty box to fill in with the "Current Thing." (NATO)
Brian Berletic notes from a Guardian article:
“Ukraine fears western support will fade as media loses interest in the war” “Costs and casualties are rising but Kyiv warns that the conflict with Russia is becoming normalised in people’s minds, at home and abroad.” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/ukraine-fears-western-support-will-fade-as-media-loses-interest-in-the-war))
Berletic continues: “IF” Ukraine’s conflict was really as important as its engineers and sponsors claim, this wouldn’t be the case. The West only poses as having a moral imperative, propped up with PR stunts. Russia actually has one – and having a moral imperative is one of the KEY prerequisites of winning any conflict.
While the Great WalkBack, which is just another pretext and attempt to change the narrative, is gaining steam, Russian forces are gaining city by city, area by area, deliberately, resolutely, not wavering and now moving faster. The last estimate that I am aware of, is that Lugansk is 95% cleared, whereas in the Donbass Republic there still is some work to do with a 50% of the area still under battle or planned to be under battle.
Yet, we see more and more comments that the front has collapsed, that the Ukrainian forces hang their heads on their chinstraps and that the only reason for the continuance of battle is that most of the Ukrainian forces find it impossible to conceive of the concept of laying down their arms.
This is exactly why the Military Summary Channel is still a very good source because he does not pretend that what is left of the defeated Ukrainian forces, cannot yet fight.
Kadyrov’s forces are being increased if you pay attention to his channel. https://t.me/RKadyrov_95 As the Ukrainian forces get decimated, we know their tactic is to move into schools and other civilian areas and literally use civilians as fire screens. To clear these areas is very fine work for Kadyrov and his men and they excel at it.
The detail as of the end of the 12th day of June:
Enjoy your discussion as we slowly move from this phase of active SMO to the next with not even a hint from Russia as to what it will be.
Select Commentary
Seeing as the USA is still buying Russian oil, this latest “revelation” suggests the Imperial attitude towards all the Europeans is “Sanctions for thee, but not for me”. Clearly shows how much “concern” the US has for European energy independence (or rather they’ve already decided that Europe will be a nice little earner for all that “spare” US Natural Gas.)
I also think it is a valid question why RF-Allies aren’t prioritizing territorial advance against the UA to prevent their artillery & rockets from being fired from positions that can reach Donetsk. This was ostensibly the #1 reason for the SMO. The question is not necessarily directed toward the Saker community, nor is it fair to smear the questioner as a “6th column Russia basher” or “concern troll” but rather to acknowledge that something is not right with Russia’s military command in that they have allowed these attacks to continue.
The West-NATO knows that these French-made CAESAR 8×8 155mm self-propelled howitzers will be used to bomb residential areas and kill civilians in eastern Ukraine. The Nazis know that the few Russian troops in Donetsk are just there to secure the city. They are doing it because they want to do genocide. With the support of the West-NATO.
To Daniel
They have been taught a new tactic by their handles and curators – shoot and scoot. Makes them difficult to pin point for return strike. These howitzers supplied to them by the West, few of which they have managed to slip thru, are a lot more mobile it seems. They are now using that fleeting advantage to kill more Donbass civilians. It is something that knows it’s going to die and desperately tries to inflict as much destruction as it can before it’s finished off for good. I have no pity for the numbers of ukies killed so far – they have chosen this path and the price to pay for their atrocities will be excruciating.
“While the Great WalkBack, which is just another pretext and attempt to change the narrative, is gaining steam, Russian forces are gaining city by city, area by area, deliberately, resolutely, not wavering and now moving faster. The last estimate that I am aware of, is that Lugansk is 95% cleared, whereas in the Donbass Republic there still is some work to do with a 50% of the area still under battle or planned to be under battle.
Yet, we see more and more comments that the front has collapsed, that the Ukrainian forces hang their heads on their chinstraps and that the only reason for the continuance of battle is that most of the Ukrainian forces find it impossible to conceive of the concept of laying down their arms.”
Honestly I cannot really see where the significant gains are. I keep hearing about morale collapse and Ukrainians getting decimated, however, at this stage, it does not translate into massive territorial gains. 95% of LPR was liberated already two months ago, and DPR has barely budged. No signs of significant advances down south, at Avdiivka or Gulyai Pole.
This does not mean it will not happen as indeed they may be close to snapping. An important point nonetheless : from what I can vaguely understand, the strength of the Ukrainians lies in their artillery, which still functions quite well, and in their ability at sabotage and attacking supply lines. Unless they really are short on ammo, I’m guessing the Russians will continue advancing slowly to avoid ambushes or running into fire bags.
So as to the great Donbass campaign : I’ll believe it when it’s done.
Russia will take Kiev too, in time. Kiev is a Hero city, so cannot be left to the US/NATO neo-Nazis.
Summer is now on in Europe, winter is just across the corner. Heating season starts in about 4-5 months. There’s a massive lack of coal in Poland, a coal-producing country, by the way. Germany is dodging supplying armament to Ukraine. France will have a hung parliament. The rest of the NATO is small fish, but they too need to heat their homes.
There is a lack of fertilizers in Europe, if any are left they are pretty expensive. So, a food shortage, or very expensive food is imminent. In all the liberated areas in former Ukraine, fuel will be cheaper than in any unfriendly country. Harvest will be good too.
There’s going to be lot of unhappiness in the unfriendly countries. There’s also going to be increasing anger toward to refugees from the former Ukraine. This anger is slowly seen in many cities the unfriendly countries in Europe.
Russia is not in a hurry. Why should it be? It is self-sufficient and has very loyal citizens. Defeating the US/UK makes them happy. They are fighting a war against the Nazis, just like their granddads did.
Agree, Kiev was once the Russian capital. It needs to be taken… as does the territory far beyond Kiev, further to the west.
Agree. Russia needn’t hurry. it’s in mother’s interest to basically prolong her stay, until the nazis are gone & she has delivered & created a world more to her liking perhaps inviting her new improved neighbour into the sco. where the empire of lies wanted mother to be bogged down, the elites couldn’t see this wouldn’t bankrupt mother bt rather work to her advantage & long term prosperity. china & mother & other members of the axis of resistance can happily enfold the rich fertile land, the gas & oil & above all the location…location location.
From Jacob Dreizen … “ Mood turns apocalyptic: Ukr #1 official propagandist Arestovich says may be no stopping Russia from taking over Ukr; multiple Ukr officials finally disclose daily military death tolls of 100+; MSM narrative does 180 from “Russia bogged down” to “Ukr outgunned, desperate, etc.”; much too late to offer Russia only Crimea/Donbass—Kherson, south Zaporozhia already being slowly but surely incorporated into Russia; Germany puts brakes on Greek, Spanish reexport of German hardware to Ukr, says its own gifts may arrive only in October—stream of NATO heavy weapons to Ukr is DRYING UP.”
I don’t see how Russia lets Nazis have existence in U in the end, whether it’s left as just the Western part, or a rump state after historically claimed territory taken by neighbors. Nor how to get them all to go away. I think too, Russia doesn’t quit until the NATO bordering nations banish NATO bases, or at least missiles, from their land.
Russia might let Belarus and Hungary take parts of the Ukraine, but won’t allow Poland or Romania to take any, especially won’t allow Poland.
Military Summary argues convincingly that, although Russia could easily put more soldiers into Ukraine, that would not be advantageous. The roads and railways cannot take very high loads, and Russia already has a well-trained and well-equipped army in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, contrary to what many instinctively assumed, Russia is in no hurry.
On the other hand, I could easily imagine a fresh Russian army of another 100,000 – or perhaps just 50,000 – slipping in easily down the line of the Dnieper, say, to capture Dnepropetrovsk and the whole area around there. Then the semi-open cauldrons in Donbass would be academic, as there could be no flow of supplies or reinforcements from the West.
Still, the Russians have a good sense of balance and no doubt they know exactly what they are doing.
It also occurs to me that they may be deliberately drawing out the war as long as possible, squeezing the Ukrainians to encourage them to squawk for help – and thus inducing NATO to send more and more of its own weapons and ammunition into the bottomless pit of destruction. The longer it goes on, the weaker NATO will become.
Yet another angle: as stocks dwindle and the Ukrainian appeals become ever more agonised, NATO is tempted to send ever more modern and top-end weapons and equipment. Which the Russians then capture and study. Russian weapons are less likely to be captured, as they are generally advancing.
On the other hand, I could easily imagine a fresh Russian army of another 100,000 – or perhaps just 50,000 – slipping in easily down the line of the Dnieper, say, to capture Dnepropetrovsk and the whole area around there.
Something we tend to forget, is the size of the place. The Ukraine is about the size of Texas, or France. More like France, in that most of it is productive and populated. And the purpose of this military operation is not conquest and subjugation, but it is to take the Ukraine intact, to return it to its pre-2013 state or better. Better, really, because it was obviously vulnerable in 2013. It will take some time to counteract 8 years of occupation.
Because I live in Texas, I sort-of have a feel for how big it is, and how remarkably fast the Russian operation is progressing. Driving at 100 Kph on a smooth dry road, it is a very long day’s drive from El Paso to Houston. And military operations do not move at 100 Kph.
Bottom line, I don’t expect to hear about Dniepropetrovsk or Kiev until late summer or fall, at the very soonest. Best case would be for the Nazis to throw in the towel now and abscond en masse to Poland…
Editor's Note: Texas is indeed very big, slightly larger than Ukraine infact. But in North America other states and jurisdictions are much bigger. Alaska, for example is almost 4 times the size of Texas. And Canada's Quebec province is 3 times the size of Texas.
it seems to me that nobody is asking what was the West/Ukraine plan. they thought that they could lure Russia into a proxy war on territory held by LDNR. this would leave the whole of Ukraine free to mount air and military superiority as it rolled over LDNR and then Crimea. They couldn’t imagine that Russia would attack Ukraine itself. They were totally blindsided and have no answer. A Russian acquaintance gave me the answer to the question ‘how will it end?’ -when Patriarch Kirill reconsecrates the Hagia Sofia.
The US and its NATO proxy are driven by the military-industrial complex, which also controls the intelligence services, which in turn control the media.
So far things are going very well for the MIC. The consumption rate of military gear is astronomical, old gear (that must be replaced) is being dumped, and military budgets across Europe are soaring (and will largely be spent on US weapons). As to the political fallout, well, that falls on the politicians the MIC owns. If they get ejected the MIC will just buy more.
The $40 billion in aid to Ukraine is a loan (lend lease) that Ukraine must pay back (LOL). 90% of it went to US arms manufacturers, the Pentagon, and NATO countries to buy US weapons.
Aside from Russia changing the world order, things are going quite well for the MIC. It is clear that their plan is to prolong and extend this war, even by expansion into Europe, to continue generating profits. Also the ramping up of provocations in with China and the talk of an eastern NATO.
When your only tool is a gun, every problem is a target. This is their business model.
Black Cloud: How will they replace weapons when critical basic materials are supplied largely & even wholly, by Russia, China & their allies? And the supply chain is fractured?
I should have added this to the short sitrep – part of the Great WalkBack.
Finland President Sauli Niinisto: We will not join NATO without Sweden. First indication they might be having second thoughts about NATO membership.
It may have penetrated their minds, that NATO might not be a thing for much longer and neutrality has worked well for them, so far.
Yes, I remember back during one of the winter olympics. For such a tiny population, the Finns field an enormous hockey team. The Finnish ambassador was asked, what does their fan cheer mean. She shouted it out loud. The interviewer shrank back, pressed his chair away. Then she said something like, “Chop them up into little pieces!”. As the interviewer recovered his chair, she retracted, “We don’t really mean that, anymore. It’s an old battle-cry.”
My experience with Finnish immigrants … so few, that every one of them was called “Finn”, with no fear of ambiguity (ie there was never more than one Finn in my neighbourhood) … is that they can react quickly, heedlessly, with verbal violence. But, they are also smart, very smart; they realize, and backdown quickly. Often before people gather defenses.
So, yes. There is Vyborg. There is Russia purchased Finland from Sweden. Then, later, condescended to grant them, most of them, freedom. There is Karelia.
There is hate-Russia. There is an undefended border. There is trust-Russia. There is ‘Nightwish’ … “You would be surprised how hard it is to write a song in Finnish.”. There is a video ‘Leningrad Cowboys’. There is a film about a Saami woman who in 1945 feeds and protects a Finnish deserter and a Russian deserter; and births “twins” … one from each.
So… yes, I am a great admirer of the Finns. Who call themselves, Suomi! Who react too quickly from past resentments, and present thoughtlessness. Who recovers quickly realistically. Who have their share of historical and diplomatic ignorance, and heedless wokeness, and fake-NGOs. But I hope, enough sense to step back from the Nato abyss.
I expect them to have second thoughts.
My first girlfriend was Finnish. Total erotic/emotic….i met many Finns later in business circles. All showed the typical character of being extremely stubborn. Their good education system makes them arrogant and have a strong sense of self-belief…so much so, that when they work in telecoms, they boast of their prowess but dont deliver any of the expected quality….so much so that telecom dealers informed me that it was extremely frustrating for them to carry Finnish made articles and they would much prefer not to do so… The public clamoured for the Finnish products mainly due to the advertising but when the goods were finally delivered after long delays, they were faulty on arrival and all the European dealers i visited, experienced major losses as they had no support from the Finns…They all too easily get into fights and most carry hunting knives for the purpose…They are superb rally drivers… not surprising with the vast space they have, to practice these skills…They hold business meetings in Saunas, which can be fun when there is female company…
Russia should not trust the Finns…best to keep a very close watch…
@amarymth
Yes, that is a possibility, but Finland will “never” regain Russian trust! Both Finland and Sweden have shown their true characters, and there is no way president Putin may entertain with them the special relationship he had before, even if “pragmatism” may prevail at the end of the day.
It’s a joke to listen to the Stoltenberg’s latest comments that a renowned terrorist organization such as NATO is not interested in spreading the conflict. So encouraging Sweden and Russia’s direct neighbor in Finland to join the alliance is not an aggressive measure in their usual ignorant and dismissive style.
“Peace in Ukraine is possible. The question is what will be its price. How much territory, freedom and democracy we are willing to pay for this world. NATO intends to help Ukraine to give it the strongest position at the negotiating table with Russia, which should end the hostilities.”
Stoltenberg added that the NATO military does not participate in hostilities, and the Alliance itself opposes the spread of the conflict outside the country.
Russia should extend the SMO until the capture Stoltenberg, Von der Leyen, and Borrell and change both the EU’s and NATO’s extremely poor attitude.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to perform admirably.
Bear in mind that the operational objective is, IMO, not the occupation of territory. Rather, it is to force the capitulation of the Ukrainian military. Once that point is reached territory will be occupied rapidly.
Minimizing Russian casualties and preventing, as much as possible, harm to civilians is a vital priority. Thus the Ukrainian military must be broken in place.
Concerning reports of Russia bringing T-62 MBT’s out of storage due to equipment losses. I have seen no credible evidence of this. First, Russia isn’t losing that much equipment. Second, I don’t think Russia is making particularly heavy use of Main Battle Tanks (MBT) at this point in the operation.
Finally, even if Russia is bringing out some T-62’s; what of it? Slap some Reactive Armor packs on them and the T-62 is a perfectly viable weapon for the operation currently underway. Save the T-90’s for NATO.
⚡️ From the very beginning of the special operation in Ukraine, military experts undertook to analyze the tactics and further strategy of the RF Armed Forces. The guesses turned out to be wrong due to the dynamic development of events and the fact that our army tried different models of warfare. Today it is already possible to conduct an intermediate analysis of the situation that is developing within the framework of the NWO. In my estimation, everything is going as it should.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have completely switched to the tactics of mobile assault groups and complex fire engagement, shifting the focus from high speed of advance to minimizing losses while maintaining damage to the enemy.
Now an approximate algorithm of actions looks like this: Ukrainian positions are opened by UAVs and reconnaissance groups, then artillery and aircraft hit at the identified objects, after critical damage to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, assault groups consisting of several tanks, other armored vehicles and infantry platoons are advanced in the direction of key objects. Point support is provided by artillery forces and mortars. If Ukraine tries to counterattack, or the offensive of our troops is slowed down, and the enemy’s points are again “polished” by artillery and fighters. Such tactics are systematically squeezing the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of cities, villages and fortified areas.
❗️In general, the Russian troops adopted a strategy to deplete the enemy’s resources. After the final retirement of the combat-ready backbone of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the deprivation of the Ukrainian troops of the minimum number of heavy weapons, repair and fuel and lubricant resources, things will go faster.
At the moment, the actions of Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been almost completely neutralized. First of all, due to the counter-ambush actions of our special forces. In addition, extensive work is being carried out in the rear of the RF Armed Forces to identify and capture / destroy Ukrainian DRGs. Additionally, there is a checkpoint system.
As for the losses of Ukraine as a whole. With a change in tactics, the effectiveness of the liquidation of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine increased. On average, it is 300-500 people per day. The total amount of Ukrainian combat losses today is, in my opinion, up to 100,000 people. Of these, approximately 25-30 thousand were killed and up to 70 thousand were wounded and surrendered. To these 100 thousand one can add several tens of thousands more deserters.
Russian long-range aviation and the Navy continue to regularly strike with long-range cruise missiles at enemy military targets, including deep in the rear. The calculation of Kyiv and the Western side that the Russian Armed Forces would run out of missiles did not materialize – our military industry provides a sufficient rate of production of these products.
Speaking of aviation, our Air Force has now achieved operational air supremacy. It eliminates the possibility for any effective actions of Ukrainian aviation over the territories controlled by the Russian Federation, and also allows Russian pilots to operate effectively. At the same time, pockets of Ukrainian air defense remain, creating a high danger for our aircraft. The air defense system of the Ukraine was created according to Soviet principles, with deep separation, extensive use of maneuver and camouflage, and the use of anti-aircraft ambush tactics. In the history of wars, such a powerful and diverse air defense system operates for the first time.
With regards to the supply of Western weapons. They turned out to be a tangible help for the Ukrainian troops, but not enough. There are few foreign weapons, ensuring their operation suffers due to the extremely short training period for Ukrainian combat crews. There is an ammunition shortage. In addition, a number of European countries are sabotaging supplies initiated by the United States, which leads to a low density of heavy equipment per kilometer of front and does not have a significant impact on hostilities.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation use the theater of operations within the framework of the NMD to develop the latest weapons. At a minimum, the use of BMPTs, the Tornado-G and Tornado-S MLRS systems, and a flight of Su-57 fighters was noticed. For the first time, the Buk-M3 air defense system is used in combat conditions.
– Colonel Khodarenok
(machine translation)
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.
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^3000US citizens have no real political representation.
We don't live in a democracy. And our freedom is disappearing fast.
I don't want to be ruled by hypocrites, whores, and war criminals.
What about you? Time to push back against the corporate oligarchy.
And its multitude of minions and lackeys.
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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS
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