Nukes, Red Lines and Popes

McGovern notes with some alarm the recent NYT article by David Sanger (of “Iraqi WMD” notoriety) to the effect that there was a 50% chance two years ago that Russia might have used nuclear weapons rather than face defeat in Ukraine. Well, Russia is certainly not losing at present (Larry Johnson expects the war to be over by summer), so has no incentive to use nuclear weapons. But mightn’t Biden have that incentive? McGovern concludes that Putin will have noticed, and that the Russian leader must now be adjusting his strategy accordingly.

All this might suggest that Nuland’s departure, whatever it actually signifies, does not necessarily signify a victory of the China Hawks over the Russian Hawks, at least while Biden still has an election to lose. It might indicate a shift of relative influence in Washington, but it does not amount to an actual change, yet. She might have had to go anyway, given her multiple failures or failures of her proteges since the failure of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive up to and including the collapse of Avdiivka, the extremely poor state of the Ukrainian army, the leaking of the conspiring between Luuftwaffe officers to use Taurus against the Kerch bridge. All followed in some kind of symbolic appropriateness with a call to Zelenskiy from the Pope to raise the white flag.

There can be little doubt that Ukraine’s battefield situation is deteriorating, especially given the recent heavy losses of Ukrainian air defense systems (10 in one month). These had been pulled by Ukraine closer to the combat lines in order to reduce the impact of heavy Russian bombing with regular use of FAB 1500 guide bombs. The accelerating strength and more numerous presence of Russian aircraft close to the combat lines may also have made them more vulnerable and this might account for Ukrainian claims, likely exaggerated, to have shot down several of these Russian S-24 fighters.

Western weapons have not been impressive on Ukrainian battlefields. In one day recently Russia destroyed three HIMARS launch vehicles and two French long-range Ceasar Howitzers. 37 Howitzers have been supplied altogether, but because of high pressure on the gun barrels, they can only fire a couple of rounds a day. More than half of the Leopard II tanks supplied by Germany are nonoperational or have been destroyed. Only 7 of 14 British Challenger II tanks are still operational. Marder tanks, M777s and Bradleys are no longer being produced. Talk of the sending of Taurus tanks is still around, perhaps by means of a swap of British Storm Shadows for German Taurus, for Britain to pass the Taurus missiles on to Ukraine (to get around German parliamentary opposition to sending Taurus to Ukraine).

Alexander Mercouris, in his daily broadcast today, suggests that the total US shell production by the end of this year might reach half a million, supplemented by, say 60,000 from Europe. This would not meet Ukraine’s current consumption of over two million a year, nor come close to the current Russian rate of production of over one million a year.

Battlefields

In Novomykhailivka, Russia has taken control of the farmlands in the northeast. There are clashes for warehouses in the north. Russians are extending their control over the territory above the north eastern half of the settlement. Ukrainian forces in the settlement are now in danger of being encircled.

North of Novomykhailivka, Russian forces are preparing the ground for further offensive operations west of Pobieda. From here they can proceed south west to Kostiantynivka and Yelyzavetivka.

Further north, in Heorhiivka, Dima confirms Russian presence in the east of the settlement. Russia has taken more territory in the area between Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka (the southern section of which is under Russian control and which Russia is hitting with FAB 1,500 kilo bombs) to the north of Marinka. Ukrainian forces in this area appear to be encircled. Russia has attacked many Ukrainian FPV drone positions in this area.

Further north, Russia entered the settlement of Pervomaiske. Russian forces are closing in on Vuhledar by way of the village of Shevchenko. There has been no substantial change in the situation west of Avdiika in the past 24 hours, only reports of very heavy clashes around Berdychi and Orlivka, to which Ukraine is sending reinforcements. Significant numbers, perhaps as many as 7, of Abrams tanks were destroyed in this area in the previous week, leading to a replacement of the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade.

Russian forces are moving in the direction of Huliaipole, by way of Chervone. To the east they are subjecting the settlement of Malynivka to heavy bombing.

Further north there is not a lot of new activity to report around Bakhmut, other than indications of Russian preparation to move on the town of Siversk.

In the Robotyne the situation remains unclear. The front line is unstable.

Ukraine on Russia

Ukrainian Intelligence chief Budanov is saying that there will be a major Ukrainian attack on Crimea in the coming days. There is also a Ukrainian intelligence effort to monitor Russian partisans in the Odessa region.

This information comes hard on the heels of reports of the destruction of Ukrainian ambitions to launch a major attack on Belgorod. Ukraine tried to concentrate a significant number of forces in the borderlands near Tarasivke, close to Popivka, with a view to entering and seizing Russian territory as far inland as Grayvoron and Dobroye. All this was diversionary, however, from the main target further south, which was the Russian town of Valuyki in the Kupyansk area. If successful, this operation would have cut off main Russian supply routes to their forces in Kupyansk, Lyman and the Teryny-Yampolivka area over which Russia is currently establishing control. The concentrations of Ukrainian forces were destroyed by heavy Russian missile, bombing and drone attacks.

Middle East

Netanyahu and even Benny Gantz (invited by Washington without Netanyahu being advised) both confirm Israel’s intention to proceed with a ground operation against Rafah, demonstrating that there is little point in trying to divide Israeli leadership. Biden continues to send weapons to Israel, yet says that the US cannot stomach the loss of another 30,000 Palestinian lives. As Alastair Crooke notes in interview with Judge Napolitano today, Biden, despite the fact that he claims that Rafah is a red line, actually has no red line - he is failing to show Israel that there are consequences for mass murder. Biden’s plan to build a pier for offloading aid will take at least two years to implement, and is a clumsy, contorted route for getting aid to people who needed it months ago by the most direct route possible. Crooke thinks that the IDF has a lot more preparation to complete before going into Rafah: it has the potential of trouble in the West Bank during Ramadan, which started two days ago, and given the scale of resistance it is likely to meet in and from Lebanon and Iraq.