Syrian Government Regains Control Over Country’s Northeastern Parts

DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"

While the YPG might want to fight off a Turkish invasion they have little chance to succeed. The land is flat and the YPG forces only have light arms.

There is only one solution for them. They will have to call up the Syrian government and ask it to come back into the north east. That would remove the Turkish concerns and would likely prevent further Turkish moves.

After Trump had spoken with the Turkish president Erdogan, the U.S. military removed a few of its forces from some areas near the Turkish border. The Pentagon was still under the false impression that Turkey would limit its invasion to some 5 kilometer in depth. It was obvious, as we wrote, that Turkey wanted far more:

A major goal is to interrupt the M4 highway that runs parallel to the border and allows for troop movements between the east and the west of the Kurdish majority areas. The highway is about 20-30 kilometers from the border.

The M4 road is also one of the major logistical routes for the U.S. troops stationed in the western part.

The Kurds could do little to resist the Turkish onslaught. On Saturday Turkish supported "Syrian rebels" reached the M4 highway and captured and killed several Kurdish troops and civilians who were passing by. The Pentagon finally took notice of the imminent danger:

“This is total chaos,” a senior administration official said at midday, speaking on the condition of anonymity about the confusing situation in Syria.

Although “the Turks gave guarantees to us” that U.S. forces would not be harmed, the official said, Syrian militias allied with them “are running up and down roads, ambushing and attacking vehicles,” putting American ­forces — as well as civilians — in danger even as they withdraw. The militias, known as the Free Syrian Army, “are crazy and not reliable.”

Ahhhh. The "Free Syrian Army", which the U.S. built and supplied with an immense amount of weapons to fight the Syrian government, is "crazy and not reliable". How come that all the think tankers and 'journalists' who for years lauded that 'army' never noticed that?

The Pentagon finally recognized that it was not possible to hold onto the area without starting a war with its NATO partner Turkey. On Saturday evening Trump gave the order that all U.S. troops shall leave northeast Syria within 30 days. The Secretary of Defense did not resign as his predecessor did over a similar decision but defended the move.

The decision was the kick in the ass the Kurds needed to agree to the return of Syrian government troops to the area they had held on to while under U.S. command. Currently Syrian troops and their heavy weapons are streaming in. Their primary task is to prevent any further encroachment by Turkish forces. They will also move to retake the oil fields east of Deir Ezzor and they will take control of the prison camps where ISIS fighters are held.

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As of this writing Syrian troops (red) have entered Manbij, Ain al Issa, Tabqa airbase near Raqqa and Tel Tamr. Turkish supported groups (green) hold Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ayn and the villages between those two cities. That area has an Arab majority population.

The Kurds wish to keep their 'autonomous administration' of northeast Syria. While talks are still ongoing I do not expect that the mostly Arab inhabitants of the whole area, nor the Syrian government will agree to that. There can not be a special status for any of Syria's many ethnic or religious groups.

The Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces will be disbanded. Its soldiers will be integrated into the Syrian army. The Syrian government will also disband the 'autonomous' Kurdish administration. It will confiscate the weapons the U.S. has given to the Kurds. All this will take some time but it will, in the end, remove the Turkish concerns that the organized Syrian Kurdish groups could enter Turkey to fight on the side of  their PKK separatist brethren.

The U.S. had more than 1,000 troops in northeast Syria. There were also several hundred French and British special forces and some 2,000 U.S. contractors. They, and a huge amount of equipment, are now moving out. They have nothing to fear from the Syrian forces. Syria is happy to see them leave. (Reports that the U.S.yesterday bombed Syrian troops are false.)

The strategic plan behind last week's development must have come from Moscow. Russia has tried for some time to get Turkey into its camp. Russia, Iran and Syria allowed Turkey a limited invasion of Syria to scare the U.S. out. Russia largely supported the Turkish move but it will also set its limits.

Trump has been looking for a chance to move the U.S. troops out of Syria since December 2018. The borg made that politically unfeasible. The Turkish (Russian) move gave him the excuse he needed.

It is possible that the whole arrangement was made for exactly that purpose.

Posted by b on October 14, 2019 at 12:28 UTC | Permalink

Great day for Syria to recover so much of it without actually fighting for it. This would all have ended years ago is not for the crazies in the US clamoring for another war. Seems they just can not live without killing massive amounts of people near and far. Thats what americans are exceptional for.. killing.. because nothing speaks about your exceptionalism than shooting others in the back.

Posted by: Igor Bundy | Oct 14 2019 12:53 utc | 2

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ADDENDUM

Syria - Trump Gives A Green Light For Another Turkish Invasion

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This morning U.S. President Donald Trump has a little surprise for the Kurds in Syria:

Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey by telephone. Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria. The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial “Caliphate,” will no longer be in the immediate area.
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Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial “Caliphate” by the United States. (sic)

This actually is not a surprise. Trump had tried several times to remove the U.S. from Syria and was only held back by the borg. Last December then Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned when Trump ordered the troops to leave Syria. I do not expect anything similar to happen now.

Turkey long wanted to move into the Syrian border area east of the Euphrates. It sees the YPG resistance group, with whom the U.S. allied to go after ISIS, as a threat to its country. That view is justified.

Erdogan wants to take a 30 kilometer deep strip including the M4 highway which runs west to east in that area.

But the border area Erdogan marked is quite populated with some 850,000 people living there. Most of them are Kurds.

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Turkey wants to replace those Kurds with the Syrian mob that it armed and supported against the Syrian government troops. These people and their families currently live in Turkey. To move them into north Syria would be one of the largest ethnic cleansing operation the world has seen in recent times.

A saying goes "The Kurds have no friends but the mountains." But there are no mountains in Syria's north east. While the YPG might want to fight off a Turkish invasion they have little chance to succeed. The land is flat and the YPG forces only have light arms.

There is only one solution for them. They will have to call up the Syrian government and ask it to come back into the north east. That would remove the Turkish concerns and would likely prevent further Turkish moves.

The second part of Trump's statement, that Turkey will take responsibility for imprisoned ISIS fighters and families, can not be taken seriously. Those camps are far beyond the border zone Erdogan seeks.

Source: ISW - bigger

It was long predicted that the Kurds would become the biggest losers of the war on Syria. They already lost Afrin in the north west to a Turkish invasion.  Will they again resist the need to submit to the central government and repeat that mistake? One would hope that they are smarter than that but I would not bet on it.

Posted by b on October 7, 2019 at 14:33 UTC | Permalink

Select Comments

Trump will probably just move a few troops around .....not really a withdrawal. It's all about controlling Syrian oilfields and keeping pressure on Assad. As for any Kurds who still dream about Rojava they should work something out with the Syrian government while they have a chance.

Posted by: dh | Oct 7 2019 14:42 utc | 1

The second part of Trump's statement, that Turkey will take responsible for imprisoned ISIS fighters and families, can not be taken serious. Those camps are far beyond the border zone Erdogan seeks.

Who is stopping US loading them into buses and shipping them to Turkey. Trump doesn't want them, Kurds will have to feed them, while Erdogan can take them and blackmail EU. A win-win situation, at least for Trump and Erdogan. And even if EU capitulates to every crazy Turkish demands, who knows if they don't end up on Greek islands and all over Europe later on, maybe with Turkish sponsored fake identities.

Posted by: Erlindur | Oct 7 2019 14:59 utc | 2

The Kurdish people have a lot of fight and perseverance in them but the leadership has very poor (if any) foresight or forward strategic thinking. Saddam exploited it quite easily. At this point in time, Turkey wants to go in anyway to spread their ottoman education and brainwashing and the Syrian government, although would want to stop Turkey, probably should better focus on Idleb than on such a long stretch of land to protect people whose leadership would surely switch sides again without any real strategic thinking.

Posted by: Murad | Oct 7 2019 15:00 utc | 3

Rojava is an Israeli dream. No solution for the kurds, except submit to the Syrian government which has been very tolerant with them in the past.

Posted by: Bob | Oct 7 2019 15:05 utc | 4

This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama